Friday, September 12, 2008

ND analysis

Michigan vs. NotreDame
(NOT Really Enough Doughnuts At MEaltime)

It was wings last year for Charlie. Obviously that didn't cut it. This year he's going doughnuts. Hopefully he's a few short. I think he will be:

The lines started in ND's favor between a point and a point and half early this week. They've changed. Michigan is now the favorite. At Notre Dame. By one to one and a half. This could be for one of two reasons: A) fans are betting on Michigan, and hence the line has moved ( I personally find it difficult to believe that anyone who has watched Michigan's passing game would possibly bet on us) or B) Something about Notre Dame going into a bad weather situation without a running game against a good defense is scary to the odds makers (this is possible). Most likely, some loonies somewhere have actually placed wagers on Michigan. How looney are they?

ND was a 1.5 favorite at opening line. I'll start there.


-1.5 for opening spread.

Michigan offense will not pass downfield successfully = O points. But, Steven Threet will hit short flares, and we'll move the ball relatively consistently on those short gainers with a couple of long breaks mixed in = Michigan field position = 6 points.

Michigan running game vs. ND line in bad weather = 8 points, but take 1 away for not enough Brandon Minor, take away another for Nick Sheridan playing at all, take away another for critical offensive line mistakes by a very young group in a hostile stadium = -3; but add points for Carlos Brown plays qb and doesn't get injured, add one for new short yardage phenom Kevin Grady, and add one for you can't tackls Sam McGuffie for less than 8 yards after he's outside of your defensive end. Total running game points = 8.

Add baseline of 6 points for KC Lopata. but subtract 3 for bad weather = 3 points.

Michigan Defense: Huge defensive line rush results in 2 turovers and 5 sacks = 5 points.

Rich Rodriguez really, really does not want to lose his first rivalry game = 2 points

Michigan's qbs could singly handedly lose this game even against Ann Arbor Pioneer if they have a bad day = -4 points Michigan

Michigan Total Points 18.5

Notre Dame:

Notre Dame passing. Notre Dame passed successfully against SDSU. 14 points. But that was SDSU, which is a horrible horrible team = -8 points. And Jimmy didn't get sacked agains SDSU but will be crushed by Michigan's defensive line as they run over the guys who didn't get enough doughnuts at lunch even when he completes 5 or 6 yard passes, subtract another 4 points. Subtract another 2 points for bad weather. But add 3 points for Golden Tate running by Stevie Brown. Passing game = 3 points

Notre Dame running. It should help ND that the weather will not be hot. They've got a lot of doughnuts on that offensive line who ask what Kobeyashi Would Do as often as Justin Boren's family. Still, the Michigan defensive line should be quick and strong enough to have quite a number of tackles for loss on running plays. But, there will be at least 2 sustained drives by ND given inevitable run gains of 5-6 yards against a defense that couldn't stop Utah's run game in the first half. 4 points.

Notre Dame kicking game. It stinks. The weather is going to be bad. -2 points.

Notre Dame at home = 3 points

Weis is an offensive genius with screen passes = 2 points ND

Notre Weis Total Points = 10.

TCHSpread: Michigan by 8.5.

Final score guess Michigan 20 Notre Dame 10.